The Tysons area is projected to have more than 50,000 new residents in 25 years.
Fairfax County’s demographics report highlights current and past estimates, along with projections for future population growth.
Fairfax County is projected to have roughly 1.4 million residents by 2045 — about 240,000 more residents than in 2019.
Broken down by district, the data in the report that is mentioned below came from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Fairfax County Department of Management and Budget.
The Providence District encompasses Tysons, Merrifield, Oakton and the area between the eastern border of the Town of Vienna and the western border of the City of Falls Church.
Providence District’s population is expected to spike the most of the county’s nine districts in 25 years, with roughly 57,000 more residents expected in 2045 than in 2019.
Meanwhile, the Hunter Mill District, which includes the Town of Vienna and Reston, is projected to welcome 56,000 new residents. (Stats for the Town of Vienna expect the population to increase by 191 residents.)
Other districts, like Sully, Mount Vernon and Mason, are projected to have an increase of roughly 20,000 residents, while the Braddock and Springfield districts are expected to see less than 10,000 new residents.
While the Tysons area is expected to have the biggest population increase, a Fairfax County press release noted that the data in the report shows that population growth overall is slowing down.
While our population continues to increase, it’s at a slower rate than before, mirroring national trends as there are fewer births and more deaths nationwide. Since the 2010 Census, Fairfax County’s population grew at 6.4% compared to Virginia’s 8% growth rate.
As we head into 2019, tailwinds for the apartment industry outnumber headwinds. Annual rent growth increased to 2.6 percent during the third quarter from 2.4 percent the prior year, according to CBRE Research; and most markets are absorbing new supply with relative ease. In fact, CB reported that third quarter absorption was at its highest level since the late 1990s.
A recent National Real Estate Investor survey revealed that 41 percent of investors plan to be net buyers of apartments in 2019, down from last year’s 47 percent, but far outnumbering the 14 percent who plan to be net sellers. The most common complaint from rental housing investors of late is the inability to find deals that will deliver returns within their target range. But this certainly hasn’t held back transaction volume this year, which was up 8.3 percent year-to-date through October, as reported by Real Capital Analytics.
Signs of softness were beginning to emerge in October monthly data with volumes down on a year-over-year basis. Still, pricing remained in high-growth mode, increasing 8.5 percent and 10 percent for mid-/high-rise properties and garden properties, respectively. RCA’s Commercial Property Price Index™ swelled by 9.6 percent for all apartment types versus 6.4 percent for all property sectors.
The national economy continues to impress in indicator after indicator: Consumer spending, corporate profits, business optimism, unemployment rates, job openings and job growth. Through November, average monthly job gains measured 206,000, a vast improvement over 2017’s average of 182,000. Job openings were at all-time high in October with 7.1 million positions available, outnumbering the unemployed by more than 1 million.
The most recent outlook survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) revealed overall optimism for 2019 but risks weighted towards the negative. NABE economists were most concerned with trade policy followed by rising interest rates, while stronger wage growth came out on top for upside risks. Survey respondents put the odds of a recession in 2021 or later at 50 percent and 30 percent during the second half of 2020.
Wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings, broke the 3 percent mark in August for the first time since the recession, and grew 3.1 percent during the past two months. Wages are forecast to remain elevated for the next two years and should handily beat inflation. This bodes well for increased consumer spending on all types of good and services, including housing.
Multifamily housing permits began to show some weakness during the summer and have now experienced three consecutive months of year-over-year declines in the seasonally adjusted annual rate. A number of factors may be contributing to the slowing of permit-filing including higher construction material and labor costs; construction labor constraints; a necessary pause in building some market segments such as luxury apartments, which have experienced a glut of new supply in certain submarkets; and general barriers to construction, whether in the form of regulations, complicated approval processes or community opposition to new construction.
Multifamily housing starts, on the other hand, have experienced increases this year, averaging 6.6 percent year-over-year monthly through October. Forecasts for next year range from 340,000 to 383,000 units. From 2012 to 2017, starts in properties with 5 or more units averaged 348,900 units and are averaging 365,000 in 2018 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Given recent declines in permits, starts can be expected to slow next year, providing some relief to the imbalance of the aforementioned overbuilt segments by the second half of 2020.
Last month, Freddie Mac reported it expects fewer home sales in 2018, down 1.6 percent from 2017’s level. A modest increase of 1 percent is forecast for 2019. The slowing in the for-sale market has been mainly attributed to rising mortgage rates, which hit a 7-year high back in mid-November. Freddie Mac is forecasting a 50-basis point increase in mortgage rates in each of the next two years, reaching 5.6 percent in 2020. Moody’s Analytics’ forecast is more conservative with rates leveling off at 5 percent through that same time period.
Apartment market forecasts are showing more of the same in 2019, with occupancy rates in the 94 percent to 95 percent range and rent growth averaging in the 2 percent to 3 percent range, although slowing in 2020. Potential headwinds for the industry come in the form of rising interest rates, a constrained labor market, inflationary pressures and additional regulations, which could stymie both new development and rent growth.
Demographic, economic and behavioral factors will ensure healthy apartment demand in 2019. Despite the homeownership rate ticking up beginning in mid-2016, it has been flat for the past two quarters when adjusted for seasonality and increased only 0.1 percentage points in the quarter before that. Marcus & Millichap estimated the gap between a monthly home payment and apartment rent to be $339 as of the third quarter, its widest level since the recession. Rising mortgage rates, the lack of supply for buyers trying to transition into homeownership and tight credit standards are keeping apartments attractive for many potential first-time home buyers.
Renting as a lifestyle choice among all age cohorts is also sustaining demand. According to the most recent “Renter Profile Survey” from Freddie Mac, 63 percent of renters are satisfied with their rental experience and 58 percent feel this is a good choice for them right now. The number of renters who expressed having no interest in owning a home has increased gradually during the past three years. Add to that the post-Millennial generation, sometimes referred to as “Gen Z,” the oldest of whom will be graduating college and entering the workforce within the next few years, and you have a formula for continued steady growth in the apartment industry.
THE NEW RULE WAS PUBLISHED ON JULY 24, 2019 AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON NOVEMBER 21, 2019
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) published a new rule for the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Visa Program on the 24th of July. The most impactful change for investors is the higher investment levels. The minimum investment amount for the EB-5 program will increase to $900,000 on November 21, 2019. The newly published rule includes other changes to the EB-5 Program as well.
New EB-5 Program Changes:
Raised minimum investment requirements
Tightened standards for Targeted Employment Areas (TEA)
Priority Date Retention
Clarified removal of conditions on residence
RAISED MINIMUM INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS
Official wording of the new rule:
“The standard minimum investment amount increases to $1.8 million (from $1 million) to account for inflation.”
“The minimum investment in a TEA increases to $900,000 (from $500,000) to account for inflation.”
“Future adjustments will also be tied to inflation (per the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or CPI-U) and occur every 5 years.”
What does this mean for you, the investor?
Starting November 21, 2019, the minimum amount needed to invest in the EB-5 program will rise from $500,000 to $900,000 for TEA designated projects. Applying now before the new rule goes into effect will save you $400,000!
Non-TEA project minimum investments will rise as well, from $1,000,000 to $1,800,000. These new minimums won’t go into effect until November 21, 2019, so it’s worth a lot of money to the investor to start your application as soon as possible.
The cost for the EB-5 program will only increase from this point forward. There is no benefit to waiting. The investment requirement will go up on November 21, 2019 and increase again every five years.
TIGHTENED STANDARDS FOR TARGETED EMPLOYMENT AREAS (TEA)
“We will now directly review and determine the designation of high-unemployment TEAs; we will no longer defer to TEA designations made by state and local governments.”
“TEAs may now include cities and towns with a population of 20,000 or more outside of metropolitan statistical areas.”
What does this mean?
TEA projects are popular with investors because the minimum investment is lower. Unfortunately, TEA project designation will be in the hands of the USCIS. This will make TEA projects rarer and more exclusive. Furthermore, TEA projects will move away from large cities into rural areas which decreases the likelihood of investor success.
PRIORITY DATE RETENTION
“Certain immigrant investors will keep the priority date of a previously approved EB-5 petition when they file a new petition.”
What does this mean?
This is a minor change to encourage current applicants to continue the EB-5 process. The applicant won’t lose their place in the queue if they file a new petition.
CLARIFIED REMOVAL OF CONDITIONS ON RESIDENCE
“Specifies when derivative family members (for example, a spouse and children whose immigration status comes from the status of a primary benefit petitioner) who are lawful permanent residents must independently file to remove conditions on their permanent residence;”
“Includes flexibility in interview locations; and”
“Updates the regulations to reflect the current process for issuing permanent resident cards (Green Cards).”
What does this mean?
This makes it easier for the investors family to remove any restrictions on their residence.
If you’re thinking about joining the EB-5 program, there’s no time to wait! Waiting will only cost you $500,000 more. However, if you apply before November 21, 2019, then you will qualify under the easier requirements before these rules go into effect.
Disruption in transportation, namely autonomous vehicles, will impact commercial real estate
Keeping pace with and understanding how technological innovations will shape the future is both an essential and challenging component of developing a successful, forward-thinking investment strategy. Evaluating how today’s technology disruptors might impact life in the future enables investors to better frame the risks and opportunities for real estate associated with each innovation. Given the expeditious pace of technological innovation, this practice is more important now than ever.
Hundreds of billions of dollars have already been invested in emerging technologies with the potential to impact where we work, how we work, where we live, and how we purchase and consume goods and services. These technologies could affect all types of commercial real estate, too.
Invest Where Innovation Is Creating, Not Constraining, Jobs
While it is interesting to dig into the whiz-bang capabilities and technical aspects of new technologies, its impact on jobs is most profound. Additionally, while it is difficult to know the exact impacts of the technologies on where and how we live, work, and play, we do know that markets populated with the companies creating technology will see employment gains, while those populated with industries disrupted by the technologies will lose employment. Accounting for this variation in impact on employment across markets should be a primary consideration in shaping investment strategy.
The Bay Area and Seattle are established tech hubs that will continue to flourish and maintain their status as innovation centers. The Bay Area is the dominant cluster, bar none, for companies pioneering disruptive self-driving technology. Uber, Alphabet’s Waymo unit, Tesla, Apple, and GM’s Cruise are all based in San Jose or San Francisco.
As these technologies reach high levels of adoption, companies will grow as their hiring needs become more substantial and availability of tech talent becomes more difficult to secure in these established hubs. Major markets with huge labor pools such as New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Chicago have been able to attract the presence of larger tech firms like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, along with smaller markets such as Austin, Portland, and Denver.
The flip side to this technology-driven employment growth is employment destruction. Self-driving vehicles could revolutionize the transportation industry, potentially eliminating broad swaths of jobs. Many traditional distribution markets have higher concentrations of trucking jobs, making these the most vulnerable in broad industry adoption of self-driving trucks. This likely wouldn’t materially impact warehouse demand in these markets, given that many are distribution hubs serving broad geographic areas. The net effect on local employment and wages could impact other property types within these markets; a loss in transportation jobs means a loss in local services jobs.
Additionally, increased warehouse automation and markets with elevated trucking employment concentration would at best face a shift in employment composition and at worst, outright reduction. Markets having positive exposure to self-driving cars via programming and engineering jobs are also the least exposed to the types of transportation jobs that are potentially at risk of automation.
There are two broad categories of potential commercial real estate disruptors. The first is the group of startups that are actively vying to disrupt the commercial real estate industry itself. The second is the group of innovations occurring outside of the industry that has the potential to disrupt other industries, the economy overall, and, as a result, the commercial real estate space demand – self-driving cars being the chief example.
The Road Ahead
The market potential for self-driving car technology is enormous. There are 260 million cars, motorcycles, and buses in the U.S. In 2016, $2.25 trillion was spent on car ownership, public transportation, rental cars, taxis, limousines, and black cars. When considering the adoption timeline for the technology, it is important to understand that most predictions from industry experts and global automakers are light on acknowledging the significant potential for disparity between assumptions and eventual reality. Despite the potential of self-driving technology, challenges exist such as legislation hurdles, cybersecurity risks, and pushback from incumbents like insurance providers.
Many assume autonomous self-driving cars will improve efficiencies related to commutes. It’s also argued that self-driving cars will increase worker productivity during commutes, because passengers could catch up on emails and perform other tasks. Because of these efficiency and productivity gains, it is assumed that people may relocate farther away from a city center and into the suburbs, increasing commute times while productivity remains steady.
These posited efficiency gains may be quickly mitigated for the same reason lane widening on freeways doesn’t lead to improved traffic times. In economics, the concept of induced demand, also known as Jevons paradox, occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which something is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one task), but the rate of consumption rises because of increasing demand.
This dynamic is omnipresent in transportation and has even been referred to as the Iron Law of Congestion. Thus, while Marchetti’s constant would tell us self-driving cars will cause sprawl, Jevons paradox tells us this sprawl will be mitigated due to more people commuting on roadways.
Whether commuters are willing to locate further from their work environment, the key question is: While productivity could increase, do workers really want to spend more time away from home? Said another way, while productivity could increase, the fact remains that people still won’t be able to engage in non-work activities during the commute, such as spending time with family and friends or engaging in outdoor activities. Will workers really want to spend more time away from home to be working in the car?
Property Sector Impacts
For office space, it’s theorized that much less parking space will be required as cars will zip around shuttling people elsewhere instead of sitting idle while employees work. Optimists point out that this will free up previously underutilized land and space, while pessimists claim the potential loss of NOI for office landlords as income from parking could be significant.
For multifamily, pessimists posit that self-driving cars will induce urban sprawl, negatively impacting the relative value of urban properties and punishing investors who over-allocated investments to urban cores. Optimists argue that reduced parking requirements could boost the potential for housing density and commercial property. This will create more vibrant environments, and future development will be less costly thanks to reduced parking requirements.
For retail and industrial properties, shuttered suburban retail assets will be reborn, either as retail or last-mile distribution centers, thanks to increased sprawl. Investors who bet heavy on urban infill will miss a wave of industrial demand catering to such sprawl. Self-driving trucks will be a compounding factor, making it feasible for companies to stretch their logistics networks by taking advantage of cheaper, more plentiful land for warehouses.
More broadly, transit-oriented assets will suffer as people rely less on public transit. The automated nature of self-driving technology and its widespread application (that is, trucks, ships, and rail) will eliminate or transform millions of jobs, disrupting the entire U.S. labor market.
At least that is the conventional wisdom. But how sure are we that any of these scenarios are likely to play out? It’s important to note that these are all just estimations and forecasts. There is still a great deal of dispute over the timeline of self-driving roll out, regulatory adoption, and consumer adoption.
The prevailing sentiment in the industry and among futurists is that it will change the values and best uses of real estate across the board. That may be the case, but the timing is highly uncertain.
A lot of conflicting information exists on the impacts of ride-sharing on the demand for public transit. Much prevailing analysis calls for a future scenario where increased ride-sharing dramatically reduces the need for public transit, in turn reducing the value premium enjoyed today by transit-oriented developments (TODs). Two reasons are fueling much of the negative sentiment. First, at a high level, public transit ridership is falling in the U.S.
While the fear is that ride-sharing has been cannibalizing public transit ridership, this narrative doesn’t add up when you take a closer look at ridership growth. Ridership declines in the early and mid-2000s went along with waning public transit participation through the last decade. Uber didn’t launch until 2009 and Lyft came in 2012, while meaningful adoption occurred even later.
More recently, a 2017 paper from the University of California Davis Institute of Transportation Studies made headlines for identifying a relationship between increased ride-sharing use and decreased transit ridership. The paper reported that ride-sharing increases were associated with major declines in transit ridership, but the results were more modest and mixed. The study found that when survey respondents increased their use of ride-sharing, they decreased their use of bus and light rail services by 6 and 3 percent respectively, while commuter rail usage actually increased 3 percent.
The study also acknowledged two other key points. The first is that 49 to 61 percent of ride-hailing trips would not have been made at all by any other means of transportation, and that ride-hailing will likely contribute to more vehicle miles traveled in the large cities surveyed. This means more overall trips and more traffic in major cities, which would increase the relative appeal of public transit as riders seek to avoid worsening congestion. Other similarly designed survey studies found ride-sharing and public transit to be complementary, with an increase in use in one leading to an increase in use in the other.
The most recent and cutting-edge research, published in June 2018 by researchers at McGill University in Montreal, offers further explanation for declining ridership: Declines resulted from reductions in bus and train routes as well as deferred maintenance across transit modes, making adoption less compelling for riders. The presence of ride-sharing or bike-sharing was insignificant. It’s no surprise that two of the cities where public ridership grew in 2015 to 2016 were Houston and Seattle, both of which have undergone bus network overhauls. No matter how automated cars become, they will still take up a lot more space per passenger than a bus or a train. This scale and the public nature of buses and trains lower the cost per rider significantly, making them an ideal choice for lower-income workers. If planners can maintain and modernize existing public infrastructure, public transit will continue to be viable into the future.
Uber and Lyft aren’t eliminating the viability of public transit and, therefore, transit-oriented development. A well-designed and well-located TOD, especially in larger metros, derives much of its value from factors that might have nothing to do with proximity to transit. A 2017 research note from CBRE Econometric Advisors analyzing the factors driving multifamily rent premiums in the Denver market found that proximity to light rail had no statistical significance on rent levels and that TOD assets tended to derive their rent premium because they were newer, were more proximate to the central business district, and tended to have more retail density within a half-mile radius.
Any questions, contact REZAIE REPORT at (703) 629-0994 or email to email@example.com
More than 14 acres near the Greensboro Metro station is now available for development.
Cushman & Wakefield is marketing the 7.08-acre site at 2050 Chain Bridge Road to developers interested in redeveloping the land into a transit-oriented project on a long-term ground lease. An adjacent 7.08-acre site is also being made available for sale or lease, providing 14.16 acres of developable land roughly 400 feet from the Greensboro Metro station.
The lots are located at the intersection of Route 7 and Route 123, the crossroads from which Tysons Corner derives its name. Until the 1960’s, the site was home to little more than a general store until the arrival of the Tysons Corner Shopping Center, now Tysons Corner Center, in 1968 began the evolution of Tysons Corner from rural farming community to thriving edge city.
For the last 50 years, a pair of Koons car dealerships has occupied the Chain Bridge Road site on a master lease that is scheduled to expire in July 2024. Once the lease expires and Koons vacates the property, a new developer would have the opportunity to develop and construct a project on a site already zoned for commercial. The developer and ownership could also pursue PTC zoning that would allow for mixed-use and residential development with “significantly more density.”
The project would be located on the opposite side of Route 7 from Tysons Corner Center and Tysons Galleria in addition to The Boro, a massive mixed-use project that is projected to offer more than four million square feet of office, retail, multifamily, entertainment and open park space, including a 69,000-square-foot flagship Whole Foods location and a 14-screen ShowPlace ICON Theatre that are both scheduled to open by early fall.
Whether you are buying an investment property or are looking for a more suitable property for your company’s use, we take the time to fully understand and appreciate your specific needs. Every company’s occupancy and site selection needs are different. The property should be a fit in terms of price, location, uses, and investment required. As a result, we bring you only properties that are truly a good fit.
We work with you to determine your business objectives, including factors such as how much you can afford to pay, whether you are looking to rent the space after purchase, whether other properties of similar size are available, and more. We also help you learn about the local area by providing details on comparable properties and emerging trends so you can determine if the location is a good fit or investment.
At REZAIE Commercial, we are a team experienced in commercial real estate purchasing. Our accounting background gives us an edge when doing the due diligence needed to produce sound financial decisions. We help make the complicated economic terms such as Loan-to-Value (LTV), Cash on Cash, and Vacancy Rate, for example, easy to understand and can answer questions you have as often as needed.
There are a number of ways to purchase and finance commercial real estate projects. Debt and structured financing of a property is complicated. REZAIE Commercial uses best practices to find the right property, do in-depth analysis, negotiate with property owners, and obtain the best possible deal and also work with your own trusted advisors.
At REZAIE Commercial our team put’s their experience and network to use hustling to sell your property. We can help you minimize the time your property is on the market by utilizing our market and location knowledge, analytics, suitable property, comps, emerging trends, and our negotiation skills to find a buyer that is a great match for your space. Our services include helping buyers find the right home for their business, and because we know the local market so well and what you have to offer, we are confident we will identify the right buyer.
We offer turn-key project management of the entire sales process, from competitive market analyses that will help us perfectly position and market your property, to custom marketing outreach, to the last phase and detail of contract negotiation and preparation. Our marketing outreach will emphasis your property details, including your location, size, building condition, local businesses in the area, and recent sale prices of comparable properties.
If a prospective buyer wants to see your property on a Sunday, or you have a question for us after hours, we are available. Once we have negotiated the deal best for you and the buyer, we put our extensive accounting background to work preparing the contract.
Tell us about your property and we can immediately begin to give you an idea of how we will creatively approach the sale, draw qualified buyers, and help you achieve the highest sales price possible.
Property Sales Services
Competitive market analysis and positioning
Identification of the appropriate investors/users
Creation and execution of unique investor/user-specific marketing strategies
Offering memorandum preparation with lease abstracts and cash flow analysis
Negotiations with prospective buyers and/or their brokers
Management of the entire process
Experienced with industrial, office, retail, flex-space properties
If you are not ready to sell your property, let us lease it for you!
Office buildings are generally classified into one of three categories: Class A, Class B, or Class C. Standards vary by market, and each category is defined in relation to its counterparts. Building classification allows a user to differentiate buildings and rationalize market data — that said, classification is an art, not a science. While a definitive formula for each class does not exist, the general characteristics are as follows:
These buildings represent the newest and highest quality buildings in their market. They are generally the best looking buildings with the best construction, and possess high-quality building infrastructure. Class A buildings also are well located, have good access, and are professionally managed. As a result of this, they attract the highest quality tenants that also command the highest rents.
This is the next notch down. Class B buildings are generally a little older, but still have good quality management and tenants. Oftentimes, value-added investors target these buildings as investments since well-located Class B buildings can be returned to their Class A glory through renovations such as facade and common area improvements. Class B buildings should generally not be functionally obsolete and should be well maintained.
The lowest classification of office building and space is Class C. These are older buildings and are located in less desirable areas and are often in need of extensive renovation. Architecturally, these buildings are the least desirable, and building infrastructure and technology is outdated. As a result, Class C buildings have the lowest rental rates, take the longest time to lease, and are often targeted as re-development opportunities.
The above is just a general guideline of building classifications. No formal standard exists for classifying a building. Buildings must be viewed in the context of their sub-market; i.e., a Class A building in one neighborhood may not be a Class A building in another.
REZAIE Commercial brings experience across the full range of retail, office, industrial, and flex sectors. And yet, every company’s occupancy and site selection needs are unique. We take the time to understand your business, including your objectives, goals, concerns and dreams to carefully define your ideal location. We know the local area intimately because we live here so we are able to go far beyond the basic listings to find the space you need to take your business to the next level.
Because of our strong relationships with local landlords, we know their motivations and business goals, leading us to the right negotiation tactics and next steps. We are experts at every step of the financial process and work hard to negotiate the absolute best terms possible. This includes reviewing rental expenses such as operating costs, utilities and more to help you feel comfortable with the budget and safeguard your interests before moving forward.
Just as important as helping you find new space, we can help you renegotiate an existing lease. Here is where our experience shines. There is more to a lease than just rental rates. Let our 14 years of experience help you with your lease renewal.
If you’re thinking about moving, expanding or contracting, contact us early, even 1-2 years out to make sure we can bring you the best opportunities.